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<div class="rp-scroll"> <div class="report-content-container"> <!-- ============================================ Report Header ============================================ --> <div class="report-header"> <h1 class="report-title">Weekly Settlement Conditions Report</h1> <div class="report-meta"> <div class="report-meta-item"> <span class="label">Week Ending:</span> <span class="value">6 March 2026</span> </div> <div class="report-meta-item"> <span class="label">Report ID:</span> <span class="value">SC-W10-2026</span> </div> </div> </div> <!-- ============================================ Reporting Week Summary ============================================ --> <div class="report-section"> <div class="intro-summary"> <div class="intro-summary-title">Reporting Week Summary</div> <div class="intro-summary-row"> <span class="intro-summary-label">Execution Conditions:</span> <span class="intro-summary-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> <div class="intro-summary-row"> <span class="intro-summary-label">On-Chain Settlement:</span> <span class="intro-summary-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> <div class="intro-summary-row"> <span class="intro-summary-label">Fiat Rail Status:</span> <span class="intro-summary-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> <div class="intro-summary-row"> <span class="intro-summary-label">Regulatory Environment:</span> <span class="intro-summary-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> </div> </div> <!-- ============================================ Section 1: Execution Cost Conditions ============================================ --> <div class="report-section"> <h2 class="section-title">1. Execution Cost Conditions</h2> <p class="report-paragraph"> This section presents execution cost conditions across monitored trading pairs and venues. Costs are derived from proprietary trade flow analysis and reflect the realised price impact of institutional-scale market orders during the reporting week. </p> <!-- 1A. Cost by Pair --> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">A. Cost by Pair</h3> <p class="report-paragraph"> The table below summarises median execution costs by trading pair. Total basis-point cost (TBpC) captures price impact and taker fees as a single comparable measure. </p> <p class="source-label"> Source: <span>BlockRiver proprietary sweep detection: real-time trade flow analysis</span> </p> <div class="report-table-wrap"> <table class="venue-table"> <thead> <tr> <th>Pair</th> <th class="text-right">Med TBpC</th> <th class="text-right">Best Venue</th> <th class="text-right">$100k–$500k</th> <th class="text-right">>$500k</th> <th class="text-right">WoW</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/USD</td> <td class="text-right mono">7.7 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">Kraken</td> <td class="text-right mono">7.7 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">7.8 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono" style="color:#16a34a">-0.3 bps</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/EUR</td> <td class="text-right mono">8.5 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">Kraken</td> <td class="text-right mono">8.3 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">12.7 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono" style="color:#dc2626">+0.7 bps</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/GBP</td> <td class="text-right mono">12.0 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">Kraken</td> <td class="text-right mono">12.0 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">—</td> <td class="text-right mono" style="color:#16a34a">-4.3 bps</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/USDT</td> <td class="text-right mono">8.4 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">Bybit</td> <td class="text-right mono">8.4 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">8.1 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono" style="color:#dc2626">+1.2 bps</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT/USD</td> <td class="text-right mono">13.5 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">Coinbase</td> <td class="text-right mono">80.6 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">5.5 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono" style="color:#dc2626">+7.5 bps</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT/EUR</td> <td class="text-right mono">6.1 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">Kraken</td> <td class="text-right mono">6.1 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">6.3 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono" style="color:#16a34a">-0.3 bps</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT/GBP</td> <td class="text-right mono">6.1 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">Kraken</td> <td class="text-right mono">6.1 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono">—</td> <td class="text-right mono" style="color:#16a34a">-2.7 bps</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="key-takeaway"> <span class="takeaway-label">Key Takeaway:</span> Median total basis points cost widened 96 bps week-over-week to 8.14 bps, driven primarily by a 750 bps spike in USDT/USD execution costs to 13.5 bps. Core BTC pairs remained anchored (BTC/USD at 7.7 bps, BTC/EUR at 8.5 bps), while GBP crosses showed material volatility, with BTC/GBP tightening 430 bps but USDT/GBP holding flat at 6.1 bps. </div> <div class="methodology-block"> <p class="methodology-title">Methodology</p> <p class="methodology-text"> Costs are measured from observed trade flow via proprietary sweep detection. Each event represents a detected market order consuming multiple price levels. TBpC reflects median total cost inclusive of price impact and exchange taker fees. </p> </div> </div> <!-- 1B. Optimal Execution Windows --> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">B. Optimal Execution Windows</h3> <p class="report-paragraph"> The table below identifies optimal and adverse execution windows by trading pair. </p> <div class="report-table-wrap"> <table class="venue-table"> <thead> <tr> <th>Pair</th> <th>Best Window</th> <th>Worst Window</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/USDT</td> <td class="mono">16:00–18:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">6.4 bps · Coinbase</span></td> <td class="mono">00:00–02:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">19.3 bps · Kraken</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/USD</td> <td class="mono">04:00–06:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">8.3 bps · Kraken</span></td> <td class="mono">18:00–20:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">37.2 bps · Coinbase</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/EUR</td> <td class="mono">08:00–10:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">7.3 bps · Kraken</span></td> <td class="mono">00:00–02:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">13.1 bps · Kraken</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">BTC/GBP</td> <td class="mono">12:00–14:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">10.6 bps · Kraken</span></td> <td class="mono">20:00–22:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">31.5 bps · Kraken</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT/USD</td> <td class="mono">08:00–10:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">4.7 bps · Kraken</span></td> <td class="mono">00:00–02:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">16.9 bps · Kraken</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT/EUR</td> <td class="mono">02:00–04:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">5.3 bps · Kraken</span></td> <td class="mono">10:00–12:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">9.9 bps · Coinbase</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT/GBP</td> <td class="mono">16:00–18:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">6.0 bps · Kraken</span></td> <td class="mono">18:00–20:00 UTC<br><span class="window-detail">11.5 bps · Kraken</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="methodology-block"> <p class="methodology-title">Methodology</p> <p class="methodology-text"> Optimal and adverse execution windows are identified by comparing median TBpC across 2-hour UTC blocks for $100k–500k orders over the trailing 4-week period. </p> </div> </div> <!-- 1C. Venue Depth --> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">C. Venue Depth</h3> <p class="report-paragraph"> Depth classification across monitored venues and trading pairs. Based on simulated orderbook walks at $500k and $100k notional using hourly snapshots over the reporting week. </p> <div class="report-table-wrap"> <table class="venue-table depth-matrix"> <thead> <tr> <th></th> <th class="text-center">BTC/USDT</th> <th class="text-center">BTC/USD</th> <th class="text-center">BTC/EUR</th> <th class="text-center">BTC/GBP</th> <th class="text-center">USDT/USD</th> <th class="text-center">USDT/EUR</th> <th class="text-center">USDT/GBP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Bybit</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_BYBIT_BTCUSDT}}">Normal</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_BYBIT_BTCUSD}}">—</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_BYBIT_BTCEUR}}">—</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_BYBIT_BTCGBP}}">—</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_BYBIT_USDTUSD}}">—</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_BYBIT_USDTEUR}}">—</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_BYBIT_USDTGBP}}">—</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Coinbase</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_COINBASE_BTCUSDT}}">Thin</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_COINBASE_BTCUSD}}">Deep</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_COINBASE_BTCEUR}}">Normal</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_COINBASE_BTCGBP}}">Thin</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_COINBASE_USDTUSD}}">Deep</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_COINBASE_USDTEUR}}">Thin</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_COINBASE_USDTGBP}}">—</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Kraken</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_KRAKEN_BTCUSDT}}">Normal</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_KRAKEN_BTCUSD}}">Deep</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_KRAKEN_BTCEUR}}">Deep</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_KRAKEN_BTCGBP}}">Normal</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_KRAKEN_USDTUSD}}">Deep</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_KRAKEN_USDTEUR}}">Deep</td> <td class="text-center mono {{DEPTH_CLASS_KRAKEN_USDTGBP}}">Thin</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="methodology-block"> <p class="methodology-title">Methodology</p> <p class="methodology-text">Slippage ≤ 5 bps → <em>Deep</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">Slippage 5–15 bps → <em>Normal</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">Slippage 15–30 bps → <em>Thin</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">Slippage > 30 bps → <em>Shallow</em></p> </div> </div> <div class="signal-rollup"> <span class="rollup-label">Execution Conditions:</span> <span class="rollup-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> </div> <!-- ============================================ Section 2: On-Chain Settlement Costs ============================================ --> <div class="report-section"> <h2 class="section-title">2. On-Chain Settlement Costs</h2> <p class="report-paragraph"> On-chain fee conditions and stablecoin peg dynamics relevant to crypto settlement and conversion paths during the reporting week. </p> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">A. Network Fee Conditions</h3> <div class="report-table-wrap"> <table class="venue-table"> <thead> <tr> <th>Network</th> <th class="text-right">Median Fee</th> <th class="text-right">Range</th> <th class="text-right">Volatility</th> <th class="text-right">Weekly Status</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Ethereum</td> <td class="text-right mono">0.1 gwei</td> <td class="text-right mono">0.0–1.7 gwei</td> <td class="text-right mono">High</td> <td class="text-right mono {{GAS_ETH_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Bitcoin</td> <td class="text-right mono">1.0 sat/vB</td> <td class="text-right mono">1.0–7.0 sat/vB</td> <td class="text-right mono">Moderate</td> <td class="text-right mono {{GAS_BTC_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Tron</td> <td class="text-right mono">100.0 sun</td> <td class="text-right mono">100.0–100.0 sun</td> <td class="text-right mono">Low</td> <td class="text-right mono {{GAS_TRON_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">B. Stablecoin Conversion Pressure (Observed)</h3> <p class="source-label">Scope: <span>USDC (ERC-20), USDT (ERC-20 & TRC-20)</span></p> <div class="report-table-wrap"> <table class="venue-table"> <thead> <tr> <th>Asset</th> <th class="text-right">Net Issuance / (Redemption)</th> <th class="text-right">Peg Deviation</th> <th class="text-right">Weekly Status</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDC</td> <td class="text-right mono">+$1.6bn</td> <td class="text-right mono">±2.0 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono {{STABLE_USDC_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT (ERC-20)</td> <td class="text-right mono">-$364m</td> <td class="text-right mono">±4.0 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono {{STABLE_USDT_ERC20_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">USDT (TRC-20)</td> <td class="text-right mono">+$751m</td> <td class="text-right mono">±4.0 bps</td> <td class="text-right mono {{STABLE_USDT_TRC20_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="methodology-block"> <p class="methodology-title">Rule:</p> <p class="methodology-text">Net redemptions ≥ $0.5bn in the reporting week → <em>Elevated</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">Net issuance ≥ $1.25bn in the reporting week → <em>Elevated</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">Peg deviation ≥ ±10 bps sustained → <em>Elevated</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">Otherwise → <em>Stable</em></p> </div> </div> <div class="signal-rollup"> <span class="rollup-label">On-Chain Settlement:</span> <span class="rollup-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> </div> <!-- ============================================ Section 3: Fiat Rail Status ============================================ --> <div class="report-section"> <h2 class="section-title">3. Fiat Rail Status</h2> <p class="report-paragraph"> Operational status of major fiat settlement systems during the reporting week. </p> <p class="source-label">Source: <span>Official operator incident & status communications</span></p> <div class="report-table-wrap"> <table class="venue-table"> <thead> <tr> <th>Rail / System</th> <th class="text-right">Currency</th> <th class="text-right">Unscheduled Outages</th> <th class="text-right">Degraded Notices</th> <th class="text-right">Status</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="venue-name">CHAPS / RTGS</td> <td class="text-right mono">GBP</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono {{RAIL_CHAPS_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">TARGET2</td> <td class="text-right mono">EUR</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono {{RAIL_TARGET2_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Fedwire Funds</td> <td class="text-right mono">USD</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono {{RAIL_FEDWIRE_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">SEPA Instant</td> <td class="text-right mono">EUR</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono {{RAIL_SEPA_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">ACH (Same-Day)</td> <td class="text-right mono">USD</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono">None</td> <td class="text-right mono {{RAIL_ACH_STATUS_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="methodology-block"> <p class="methodology-title">Rule:</p> <p class="methodology-text">Any unscheduled outage → <em>Degraded</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">≥2 degraded notices → <em>Degraded</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">Otherwise → <em>Stable</em></p> </div> <div class="signal-rollup"> <span class="rollup-label">Fiat Rail Status:</span> <span class="rollup-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> </div> <!-- ============================================ Section 4: Risk & Compliance Signals ============================================ --> <div class="report-section"> <h2 class="section-title">4. Risk & Compliance Signals</h2> <p class="report-paragraph"> Market-wide indicators of regulatory, sanctions, and compliance posture observed during the reporting week. </p> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">A. Aggregate Risk Signal Overview</h3> <div class="report-table-wrap"> <table class="venue-table"> <thead> <tr> <th>Signal Category</th> <th>Observed Change This Week</th> <th>Affected Jurisdictions</th> <th class="text-right">Weekly Signal</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Sanctions activity</td> <td class="mono">No material change</td> <td class="mono">—</td> <td class="text-right mono {{REG_SANCTIONS_SIGNAL_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Regulatory guidance</td> <td class="mono">No material change</td> <td class="mono">—</td> <td class="text-right mono {{REG_GUIDANCE_SIGNAL_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Supervisory tone</td> <td class="mono">No material change</td> <td class="mono">—</td> <td class="text-right mono {{REG_SUPERVISORY_SIGNAL_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="venue-name">Enforcement actions</td> <td class="mono">No material change</td> <td class="mono">—</td> <td class="text-right mono {{REG_ENFORCEMENT_SIGNAL_CLASS}}">Stable</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="methodology-block"> <p class="methodology-title">Rule:</p> <p class="methodology-text">New sanctions designations, tightened regulatory language, or elevated supervisory activity → <em>Elevated</em></p> <p class="methodology-text">No material change → <em>Stable</em></p> </div> </div> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">B. Source Activity Log</h3> <p class="report-paragraph">Published regulatory and sanctions updates relevant to settlement and counterparty operations:</p> <div class="report-html-content"><p>No material regulatory updates during the reporting week.</p></div> <p class="italic-note">(This section reflects published source activity only and does not constitute legal interpretation.)</p> </div> <div class="signal-rollup"> <span class="rollup-label">Risk & Compliance Signal:</span> <span class="rollup-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> </div> <!-- ============================================ Section 5: What Changed This Week? ============================================ --> <div class="report-section"> <h2 class="section-title">5. What Changed This Week?</h2> <p class="report-paragraph"> Material changes to settlement conditions observed during the reporting week. </p> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">Observed Changes</h3> <div class="report-html-content"><ul><li>Median total basis points cost widened 96 bps week-over-week to 8.14 bps, driven by a 750 bps spike in USDT/USD execution costs to 13.5 bps, with material mid-size lot degradation (100K–500K size band at 80.6 bps).</li><li>BTC/GBP tightened 430 bps to 12.0 bps median, while BTC/EUR widened slightly by 0.7 bps to 8.5 bps; core BTC/USD remained stable at 7.7 bps (−0.3 bps).</li><li>Intraday execution windows show pronounced volatility: BTC/USD worst-case window (18:00–20:00 UTC) at 37.2 bps on Coinbase; BTC/GBP worst window (20:00–22:00 UTC) at 31.5 bps.</li><li>Stablecoin net issuance shifted: USDC +$1.6bn, USDT ERC-20 −$364m, USDT TRC-20 +$751m; all pegs stable within ±4.0 bps tolerance.</li><li>All settlement rails (CHAPS, TARGET2, Fedwire, SEPA, ACH) maintained zero outages and zero degradation; on-chain and regulatory conditions unchanged.</li></ul></div> <p class="italic-note">(Items are included only where a material change was observed. Coverage may vary week to week.)</p> </div> <div class="subsection"> <h3 class="subsection-title">Operational Implications</h3> <p class="report-paragraph"> For firms executing at institutional scale, this week's conditions point to the following considerations: </p> <div class="report-html-content"><p>The 750 bps USDT/USD spike represents the week's primary execution risk, particularly for mid-size institutional orders (100K–500K), where costs reached 80.6 bps. Traders should prioritize execution during optimized windows (BTC/USD: 04:00–06:00 UTC, USDT/USD: 08:00–10:00 UTC) and monitor Kraken and Coinbase depth selectively by pair to avoid worst-case venue/time combinations.</p><p>Stablecoin rebalancing across ERC-20 and TRC-20 networks remains orderly with tight pegs; settlement rail stability supports normal operations. No regulatory or on-chain friction identified.</p></div> </div> <div class="signal-rollup signal-rollup-final"> <span class="rollup-label">Weekly Settlement Conditions:</span> <span class="rollup-value signal-stable">Stable</span> </div> </div> <!-- ============================================ Footer ============================================ --> <div class="report-footer"> <p class="report-disclaimer"><strong>BlockRiver AG — Weekly Settlement Conditions Report</strong></p> <p class="report-disclaimer"> Prepared for informational purposes only. This report reflects observed conditions during the reporting period and does not constitute legal, regulatory, or professional advice. © BlockRiver AG. </p> </div> </div>
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