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Whtie Papers
Explore in-depth research and position papers.

The Death of Omnibus Risk in OTC Markets

Omnibus risk structures were effective in an environment of limited scale and homogeneous counterparties. As institutional OTC markets have expanded, those same structures have become sources of hidden concentration and balance-sheet fragility.

Segregation represents a structural response to this shift. By localising exposure and enforcing attribution, it transforms systemic risk into manageable, unit-level risk. The decline of omnibus risk is therefore not a regulatory artefact, but a consequence of how institutional markets now operate.

The implication is clear: resilience in modern OTC markets depends less on monitoring pooled exposure and more on designing systems where exposure cannot silently aggregate in the first place.

USDC Hits $75 Billion: Logistics CFOs Face a Settlement Infrastructure Question

Circle's USDC stablecoin crossed $75.3 billion in circulation at year-end 2025, up 72% year-over-year, with quarterly on-chain transaction volume of $11.9 trillion. For logistics operators managing cross-border payments across multiple corridors and currencies, this scale shifts the question from whether stablecoin settlement is viable to why correspondent banking fees remain acceptable.

The numbers are no longer theoretical. Circle reported $75.3 billion of USDC in circulation at the end of 2025, a 72% increase from the prior year. Quarterly on-chain transaction volume reached $11.9 trillion, up 247%. The company has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a federally regulated national trust bank for USDC reserve management. For logistics finance teams accustomed to treating stablecoins as speculative instruments rather than settlement infrastructure, these figures warrant re-examination.

The correspondent banking model that underpins most cross-border freight payments was not designed for contemporary trade volumes or transparency requirements. Each intermediary in a payment chain extracts fees, converts currencies at opaque rates, and adds settlement time. The Bank of England notes that the more correspondent banks involved in a transaction, "the longer the transaction will take, and more costs will be involved at each stage of the chain." For less common currency pairs, multiple correspondent banks may process a single payment, with fees deducted at each point, often without advance disclosure to the sender.

According to the World Bank's Remittance Prices Worldwide database, the global average cost of sending remittances was 6.49% as of early 2025, more than double the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal target of 3%. Banks remain the most expensive provider category, with average costs near 12%. For B2B payments, the picture is worse: correspondent fees, FX spreads, receiving bank charges, and SWIFT messaging costs compound across every transaction. Wire transfer fees alone typically range from $25 to $75 per cross-border transaction, before intermediary bank deductions that Wise estimates at $15 to $50 per transfer, fees the sender may not know about until the payment arrives short.

Logistics operators absorb these costs across hundreds or thousands of monthly transactions. A mid-sized freight forwarder managing supplier payments across Asia-Europe corridors, vessel charter settlements, port fees in multiple currencies, and subsidiary funding transfers faces a compounding problem. Each payment corridor has its own cost structure, its own intermediary chain, its own opacity. The inefficiency is diffuse enough to be accepted as operational reality rather than a controllable cost centre.

The G20 Cross-Border Payments Roadmap, developed with the Financial Stability Board, set ambitious targets for 2027: cheaper, faster, more transparent, more accessible payments across wholesale, retail, and remittance segments. The FSB's 2025 progress report found that only 35% of global cross-border retail payments and 55% of wholesale payments settle within one hour of initiation, against a target of 75%. A Bank for International Settlements analysis concluded that the 2027 targets are unlikely to be achieved on time and that "improvements in outcomes for end users have so far been modest." The correspondent banking model continues to dominate despite years of coordinated international effort to reform it.

Stablecoin settlement operates on different economics. USDC moves on public blockchain networks with transaction finality measured in seconds. There are no correspondent banks in the chain. FX conversion, where needed, happens at market rates with visible spreads. Settlement is 24/7, not constrained to banking hours in multiple jurisdictions. Visa's December 2025 announcement that U.S. issuers and acquirers can now settle VisaNet obligations in USDC, with seven-day settlement windows and no change to consumer card experience, signals that stablecoin rails have moved from pilot to production for major financial infrastructure. The company reported an annualised stablecoin settlement volume exceeding $3.5 billion as of November 2025.

For logistics operators, the relevance is not the technology but the cost comparison. A $100,000 supplier payment that incurs 1-2% in combined correspondent, FX, and wire fees costs $1,000-$2,000. The same payment settled in USDC moves for blockchain network fees measured in cents. The on-ramp and off-ramp, converting local currency to USDC and back, has friction, but competitive service providers now operate at spreads well below correspondent banking's all-in costs. At scale, across multiple corridors and hundreds of monthly payments, the differential compounds into a material line item.

Circle's Circle Payments Network reported 55 financial institutions enrolled and 74 undergoing eligibility reviews as of February 2026, with annualised transaction volume reaching $5.7 billion. The company's euro-denominated stablecoin, EURC, reached €310 million in circulation at year-end, up 284% year-over-year. For logistics operators with significant intra-European flows or euro-dollar settlement requirements, the infrastructure now exists for both currency corridors.

The operational questions are real. Treasury teams must evaluate counterparty willingness to receive stablecoin settlement. Compliance functions must assess regulatory frameworks in each jurisdiction, though Circle's MiCA compliance in Europe and U.S. regulatory clarity under the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, have reduced uncertainty in major trade corridors. Finance systems must integrate new settlement workflows. These are implementation challenges, not fundamental barriers.

The question for logistics CFOs is no longer whether stablecoin settlement infrastructure exists at operational scale. At $75 billion in circulation, with 72% annual growth and major payment networks building on the rails, that question is answered. The question is whether continuing to accept unexplained correspondent banking fees across Asia-Europe-Americas corridors represents prudent treasury management or an unexamined cost that erodes margin on every container moved.

The modelling exercise is straightforward: map current corridor costs, including all visible and extracted fees, against what the same flows would cost on stablecoin rails. The answer will vary by corridor, by currency pair, by counterparty readiness. But the scale of the alternative infrastructure now demands that the comparison be run.

References

[1] Circle, Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results

[2] Visa, Visa Launches Stablecoin Settlement in the United States

[3] Bank of England, Cross-border payments

[4] World Bank, Remittance Prices Worldwide

[5] Bank for International Settlements, Enhancing cross-border payments: state of play and way forward

[6] Circle, Circle Receives Conditional Approval from OCC for National Trust Charter

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